Developing narratives for future bioeconomy needs a combination of facts and ideas, to a certain extent, giving up the idea of a steering wheel for the transition.
Bioeconomy can be understood as a part of current economic systems that is based on biological resources and processes. Bioeconomy, however, is already envisioned as a new system state where resources and production are organised in a novel way, and technologies are applied to count in the social and ecological bases of economic activities.
Socio-techno-economic change is difficult to model – mere vision is not enough either!
Gradual changes and a radical transition toward a bioeconomy progress side by side. It is challenging to model such changes: path dependencies slow down profound system changes, regardless of the ambitious goals set for a transition.
At the beginning of the 2020s, many international organisations, governments, central banks, private financiers and companies highlighted their commitment to mitigate climate change.
In 2024, the consultancy company McKinsey analysed sustainability reporting to understand how companies consider nature in their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) strategies in the Fortune Global 500 Companies. The report concluded that companies’ nature-related commitments have broadened from addressing carbon emissions to include water, chemicals and plastics, biodiversity, forests, and nutrients or nitrogen oxides.
Now, in 2025, news headlines, particularly those from the United States, illustrate again quite a different outlook, with companies backtracking on their environmental pledges. Yet, uncertainty is bad for business. Companies consider both the short-term and long-term transition risks associated with investments and transition opportunities that drive business growth. This underscores the need for enhanced data, tools and skills for imagining the (yet) unimaginable.
Horizon scanning is a method for systematic detection and assessment of signals, early warnings and signs of change. These signals are data for monitoring the ongoing changes, such as emerging trends. They serve as material for envisioning possible futures, including drivers of a radical change. Developing narratives for a future bioeconomy needs a combination of facts and ideas, to a certain extent, giving up the idea of a steering wheel for the transition.
The three horizons framework helps think of futures in the plural
The three horizons framework is a sensemaking tool for system changes (Sharpe et al. 2016). The three parallel lines of possible developments illustrate three narratives toward future: Horizon-3 as the new system state which will eventually replace the present, Horizon-1 system (H1), and Horizon-2 as the space where the ideas to sustain the present system (H2-) compete with the ideas to speed up the emerging new system (H2+). In other words, the future bioeconomy can be found in the present both as the visionary ideas of a radically different system state, the gradual changes of the dominant system, and the tensions between these two.
The future bioeconomy can be found in the present, embodied in the visionary ideas of a radically different system state, the gradual changes within the dominant system, and the tensions between these two.
System changes are not linear or predictable. Horizon scanning enhances data and skills to think differently. In essence, signals are like pockets of different futures already in the present:
- Current trends and drivers are easy to recognise, and past developments give confidence to make outlooks in their continuity. (H1)
- Emerging drivers of change are debatable; they are known in some contexts but not necessarily in others, and they can signal several possible outlooks, although even contradictory developments. (H2)
- Weak signals are ideas or phenomena that seem surprising or absurd today and do not necessarily materialise. (H3)
For example, the horizon scan of future places (Urban Foresight, 2024) collected a database of nearly 300 trends that will impact the future of British towns and cities. As is often the case, weak signals were the hardest to find, while current trends and drivers were the most numerous.
Under the heading “Investing in healthy futures”, these environmental trends were identified:
- H1 (now to 5 years) – Green planning: Cities prioritise people-centric planning and design, featuring green streets, new corridors, and vibrant public spaces as social hubs.
- H2 (10+ years) – Active travel and extreme weather: Changing climate and unpredictable and extreme weather set back active travel uptake.
- H3 (30+ years) – Green space as a right: Accessibility to green spaces is accepted as a right that supports happy, healthy and equitable populations.
Rather than deep diving into the identified trends, the horizon scan of future places demonstrates that signals are contextual and interpreted for a purpose.
Pockets of the future bioeconomy in the present
Climate change, urbanisation, globalisation and digitalisation are examples of megatrends over the past decades. Tensions, detectible for their outlook, help quantify what-if questions for the analysis of the future bioeconomy.
In turn, signals of change are crucial for developing alternative narratives toward possible futures, including a profoundly different future system state. Take the example of how nature has been addressed in recent economic, social and technological developments.
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, the Economics of Ecosystem and Biodiversity (TEEB), as well as the Dasgupta Review caught wide attention on how we should account for nature in economics and decision-making.
Impacts and dependencies of economic activities on the state of nature tend to be overlooked. To this end, an international standard for integrating economic and environmental data has been adopted (SEEA), and accounting frameworks, such as the natural capital accounting and ecosystem accounting, have been developed (UNEP 2025).
Furthermore, environmental footprint and biodiversity footprint methods have been developed to assess the environmental impacts of products, processes and organisations. Making the costs of depleting ecosystems visible on economic terms could also translate the opportunities of protecting and restoring nature into economic equations.
On the other hand, a call has been made for the rights of nature. The inherent value of nature for nature itself is part of the Indigenous Peoples’ heritage. Over the decades, personhood rights have been granted for rivers, forests, and mountains – for example, Mount Taranaki in New Zealand (Taranaki Mounga, 2025).
At the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2025, the idea was put forward that, in the current situation, the global climate and hydrological cycles should also be granted environmental legal status.
The Earth Species Project illustrates how the application of AI and machine learning can open new ways of engaging with nature. In the Futures podcasts (2025), Jane Lawton envisions how such interaction could help us understand within wider nature but also involve ‘voices’ of other species in questions concerning conservation or rights-for-nature debates. Acoustic ecology research has already explored the restoration of aquatic and terrestrial ecological communities after disturbances (Znidersic and Watson 2022).
These snapshots and the possible futures they evoke inspire, yet also leave a somewhat uneasy feeling. This is the field of horizon scanning: detecting and assessing signals of change to prioritise those that need further scrutiny and/or that give food for thought on what could be possible.
Curious about horizon scanning?
Come and share your ideas! What do you consider an early warning or sign of an emerging trend that bioeconomy research and education has not yet paid due attention to, to assess potential system changes?
This article provides a brief introduction to the horizon scanning workshop by the European Forest Institute (EFI) and the University of Eastern Finland (UEF) at the European Bioeconomy Scientific Forum (EBSF) in June 2025 in Joensuu, Finland.
To learn more, contact Senior Researcher Päivi Pelli at paivi.pelli @ efi.int
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References
Earth Species Project https://www.earthspecies.org/
Future podcast (2025) Decoding Animal Communication w/ Jane Lawton, January 23, 2025. Dubai Future Forum https://futurespodcast.net/episodes/bonus-jane-lawton
McKinsey & Co. (2024) Corporate commitments to nature have evolved since 2022. December 10, 2024 Article / McKinsey’s Agriculture Practice https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/corporate-commitments-to-nature-have-evolved-since-2022#/
Sharpe, B, Hodgson, A, Leicester, G, Lyon, A, Fazey, I (2016) Three horizons: a pathways practice for transformation. Ecol Soc 21:47. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08388-210247
Taranaki Mounga (2025) Te Ture Whakatupua mō Te Kāhui Tupua and Taranaki Maunga – Questions & Answers, February 12, 2025 https://taranakimounga.nz/news/te-ture-whakatupua-mo-te-kahui-tupua-and-taranaki-maunga/
UN Environmental Programme (2025) Natural capital accounting and valuation of ecosystem services NCAVES FAQ https://www.unep.org/topics/teeb/natural-capital-accounting-and-valuation-ecosystem-services/ncaves-faq
Urban Foresight Place Kits by Urban Foresight https://www.placekits.com/futureplaces
Urban Foresight (2024) Future Places – A Horizon Scan of Future Trends for the UK’s Towns and Cities. Urban Foresight Ltd for Innovate UK. https://iuk-business-connect.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Horizon-Scan-Future-Trends-for-UK-Towns-Cities.pdf
WEF (2025) Environmental personhood: what is it and why should nature be given legal status?
February 13, 2025. Article by Elisabeth Mills, https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/02/environmental-personhood/
Znidersic, E., Watson, D.M. (2022) Acoustic restoration: Using soundscapes to benchmark and fast-track recovery of ecological communities. Ecology Letters 25(7), 1597-1603. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14015
Featured image: Background by Pgiam from Getty Images Signature; man illustration by Sensvector; woman illustration by artbesouro / edited in Canva
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